气候变化对北京市居住建筑空调电耗的影响
Impact of climate change on electricity consumption of air conditioners in residential buildings in Beijing
摘要：
空调电耗占我国城镇住宅总用电量的20%，准确分析气候变化对空调耗电量的影响对居住建筑节能低碳技术的发展与应用具有重要意义。气候变化不仅影响建筑冷热负荷需求，而且通过对分体空调运行能效比（EER）的影响进而影响空调运行电耗，最终造成居住建筑分体空调电耗的巨大变化。在全球变暖、极端气候事件增加的背景下，本研究以北京典型居住建筑为例，使用能耗模拟软件DeST对该建筑在1960—2014年的冷负荷变化情况进行定量模拟，并使用TRNSYS的分体空调模型计算了该建筑的逐年空调电耗。结果表明1960—1980年期间空调电耗呈下降趋势，1980年以后平均气温显著升高，空调电耗也随之增加。通过分析气象参数对空调电耗的影响，本研究发现室外干球温度对空调电耗的影响最大，含湿量和太阳辐射与电耗的相关性较小。此外，本研究考虑了室外温度对空调运行EER的影响，并据此计算得到了空调电耗，该电耗与使用空调额定EER计算得到的电耗相比有较大差别，2种方法计算得到的累计值和尖峰值偏差约为10%，因此在开展气候变化对建筑能耗的影响分析研究时应该考虑室外温度对分体空调运行EER的影响，使分析结果更准确合理。
Abstract：
Air conditioning electricity consumption accounts for 20% of the total electricity consumption in urban residential buildings in China. It is of great significance to analyse the impact of climate change on air conditioning electricity consumption to the research and application of energy-saving and low-carbon technologies in residential buildings. Climate change not only affects the building cooling and heating load demand, but also affects the air conditioning operation electricity consumption through the influence on the split air conditioning operation energy efficiency ratio (EER), which eventually causes great changes in the split air conditioning electricity consumption of residential buildings. Under the presence of global warming and an increase in extreme weather events, this study uses the energy simulation software DeST to quantitatively simulate the change in cooling load of a typical residential building in Beijing from 1960 to 2014, and uses the split air conditioning model of TRNSYS to calculate the annual air conditioning electricity consumption of the building. The analysis shows a decreasing trend of air conditioning electricity consumption during the period of 1960 to 1980, and a significant increase in average temperature since 1980, with a consequent increase in air conditioning electricity consumption. By analysing the influence of meteorological parameters on air conditioning electricity consumption, this study finds that the outdoor dry bulb temperature has the strongest influence on air conditioning electricity consumption, while humidity content and solar radiation has less correlation with electricity consumption. In addition, this study considers the influence of outdoor temperature on the EER of air conditioner operation, and calculates the value of air conditioner electricity consumption, and finds that there is a big difference compared with the electricity consumption calculated using the rated EER of air conditioners, and the deviation of the cumulative value and the sharp peak value calculated by the two methods is about 10%. Hence, the impact of outdoor temperature on the operation of split air conditioners should be considered when analysing the impact of climate change on building energy consumption to make the analysis results more accurate and reasonable.
Keywords:climate change; residential building; split air conditioner; energy efficiency ratio (EER); air conditioning electricity consumption