北方城镇集中供热能耗及其朴素贝叶斯模型分析与实证*
Analysis and demonstration of centralized heating energy consumption and its naive Bayesian model in northern cities and towns
摘要：
依据我国北方集中供热区域典型省市5 060个不同规模热源的供热能耗数据，采用朴素贝叶斯模型建立了城市尺度的建筑集中供热能耗强度分析模型。基于统计年鉴公开数据，对涉及北方地区建筑集中供热能耗的主要统计指标进行了分类，系统分析了数据指标的平衡公式、统计范围、数据口径、有效年份、数据完整性等。通过对比2项研究结果与清华大学发布的建筑集中供热能耗强度数据，建议将用贝叶斯模型分析方法得到的各城市建筑集中供热能耗强度作为供热能耗强度的代表值。
Abstract：
Based on the heating energy consumption data of 5060 different scaled heat sources in typical provinces in Northern China, establishes an energy consumption intensity analysis model of urban scaled building centralized heating using naive Bayesian model. Based on the data published in the statistical yearbook, classifies the main statistical indicators of building centralized heating energy consumption in Northern China, and systematically analyses the balance formula, statistical range, data standard, effective year and data integrity of the data indicators. Comparing the results of two studies with the energy consumption intensity data of building centralized heating issued by Tsinghua University, suggests that the energy consumption intensity of urban building centralized heating obtained by naive Bayesian model analysis method be taken as the representative value of energy consumption intensity of heating.
Keywords:centralizedheating,energyconsumptionintensity,statisticalyearbook,naiveBayesianmodel,urbanscale,Northernheatingarea