基于STIRPAT模型的重庆市城镇建筑能耗影响因素分析
Influencing factors of urban building energy consumption in Chongqing based on STIRPAT model
摘要：
为定量研究重庆市2005—2014年间城镇建筑能耗影响因素，以STIRPAT模型为理论基础，构建了重庆市城镇建筑能耗影响因素数学模型，利用最小二乘法和岭回归分析对模型进行计算分析，并设置了8种情景使用模型对建筑能耗预测。结果表明：重庆市2005—2014年城镇建筑能耗影响因素按影响程度大小依次为：城镇居民消费水平（28.6%）、人均建筑面积（23.1%）、第三产业发展水平（21.9%）、城镇化率（20.7%）和总人口（5.8%）。
Abstract：
For the quantitative research on the influencing factors of urban building energy consumption in Chongqing from 2005 to 2014, establishes a mathematical model of the factors affecting the energy consumption, analyses the model by least square method and ridge regression analysis based on STIRPAT model, and validates the model under eight scenarios. The results indicate that the influencing factors of energy consumption from 2005 to 2014 in accordance with their influence degree can be divided into five parts: consumption level of urban residents (28.6%), building area per capita (23.1%), the tertiary industry development (21.9%), rate of urbanization (20.7%) and total population (5.8%).
Keywords:building energy consumption, Chongqing, STIRPAT model, influencing factor, least square method, ridge regression