深圳市建筑能耗宏观影响因素分析及发展趋势情景预测
Macro factors analysis and development trend scenario forecast on building energy consumption in Shenzhen
摘要：
以深圳统计年鉴和历年深圳市民用建筑能耗统计数据为基础，总结了深圳市建筑能耗总体情况和变化趋势。对影响城市建筑整体能耗的3个宏观因素——社会经济发展水平、经济增长方式和城市气温——的变化发展规律进行了深入分析。运用情景分析法对未来深圳市建筑能耗进行了预测，结果表明，到2020年，按照目标情景开展建筑节能工作，与2015年相比，可实现建筑节能132亿kW·h。
Abstract：
Based on the statistical yearbook and the energy consumption statistics of civil buildings over the years, summarizes the general situation and trend of building energy consumption in Shenzhen. Analyses the three macro factors affecting the overall energy consumption of urban buildings: the level of social and economic development, economic growth mode and urban environment temperature. Predicts the overall building energy consumption of Shenzhen in the near future using the scenario analysis method. The results show that 13.2 billion kWh of electricity savings can be achieved, when comparing the predicted data of 2020 with the actual building energy consumption intensity of 2015 if the building energy efficiency work can be promoted under the target scenario.
Keywords:macro energy consumption, building energy efficiency, total amount control, factor analysis, scenario forecast