区域建筑能源需求预测基准模型的构建——以深圳市公共建筑为例
Benchmark model construction of district building energy demand forecast—A case of public building in Shenzhen
摘要：
根据深圳市公共建筑能耗敏感因子分析结果，采用统计分析法、情景分析法和模拟分析法建立了区域建筑能源规划中酒店类、办公类及商业类典型建筑模型。以商业类建筑为例，详细叙述了典型建筑模型的建立过程，并以实测逐月能耗数据对典型建筑模型进行了校准，用校准后的建筑能耗基准模型进行了区域建筑能源需求预测。结果表明，办公、商业、酒店类建筑能耗基准模型的能耗预测值与实测值的月误差、年误差和均方差变异系数均满足误差标准要求，该方法可用于在区域层面进行办公、商业、酒店类公共建筑能源需求预测。
Abstract：
According to the sensitive factor analysis results of public building energy consumption in Shenzhen, establishes the typical building models of hotel, office and commercial buildings in district building energy planning by adopting the statistical analysis method, scenario analysis method and simulation analysis method. Taking the commercial building as an example, describes the establishing process of typical building model in detail. Calibrates the typical building model with the measured monthly energy consumption data, and forecasts the district building energy demand using the calibrated benchmark model. The results show that the monthly error, the annual error and the variance coefficient of mean-squared difference coefficient between the estimated value and measured value of the hotel, office and commercial building benchmark models meet the requirements of relevant standard, and that the method can be used to forecast public building energy consumption at the district level.
Keywords:district building, energy demand, forecast, benchmark model, public building