基于多尺度挖掘的区域供热系统负荷预测
Load prediction of district heating systems based on the multiscale mining method
摘要：
将多尺度分析方法引入到热力过程进行优化分析，从区域供热系统实际运行数据入手，采用优选分解的方法，深入分析不同尺度时间序列对供热负荷发展趋势的贡献，采用抽样组合方法对未来时刻负荷需求作出预测。仿真实验证明本文介绍方法的预测精度高，实时性强，具有推广前景。
关键词：区域供热,多尺度挖掘,小波包
Abstract：
Adopts the multiscale mining method to realize the operation optimization of the thermal engineering process. Based on the operation data of a district heating system, with the method of best wavelet packet analysis, calculates the contributions of time series in different scale to the development trend of heating load. Predicts the quantity of heat needed in future using the sampling combination prediction model. Simulation result shows that the multiscale mining method can predict on realtime with high precision and be generalized.
Keywords:districtheating,multiscalemining,waveletpacket