对自然排烟防烟“自然条件”的可靠性分析
Analysis of natural condition dependability of natural smoke control and exhaust
摘要：
从自然排烟防烟的“自然条件”——热压、风压的对称性与随机事件等可能性的关系入手，应用概率理论对火灾发生时热压、风压随机现象对自然排烟的可靠度进行了分析和计算，找出了事件的规律性，最后将自然排烟防烟的自然条件的可靠度定格为50%。认为自然排烟防烟设施系统的总可靠度应为“天”、“物”、“人”三元素组成的可靠性串联系统的可靠度，而自然条件的可靠度即“天”的可靠度，只是三元素中之一，总可靠度比自然条件的可靠度要低，并就此进行了分析，得出了结论。
Abstract：
Starting from the natural condition ie. the relationship between symmetry of the thermal buoyancy and the wind pressure and the equal probability of the random events, based on the probability theory, analyses and calculates the possibility of impacts of thermal buoyancy and wind pressure as random events on natural smoke control and exhaust while fire occurs. Works out the regularity and determines the natural condition dependability of natural smoke control and exhaust is 50 percent. Considers that the total dependability including nature, substance and man, that the dependability of natural condition is merely one of the three factors and that the total dependability is lower than the natural condition dependability. Analyses it and elicits some conclusions.
Keywords:randomevent，probability，neurallevel，windwardside,leewardside，symmetry