区域建筑负荷与能耗预测研究综述
Review of district building load and energy consumption prediction
摘要：
从区域建筑负荷与能耗的影响因素和预测方法两方面阐述了区域建筑负荷与能耗预测的研究现状。影响区域建筑负荷与能耗的因素包括单体建筑能耗影响因素和区域特有的影响因素（城市形态与微气候）。基本预测方法有自上而下方法和自下而上方法。自下而上方法较为常见，在应用时需引入同时使用系数，并结合情景分析方法。由于没有成熟的区域建筑负荷与能耗预测软件，目前主要有两种预测方法：基本模型方法，如基于实际调研获得的统计模型和利用GIS技术建模等；考虑微气候与城市形态的影响，通过能耗模拟软件与其他工具耦合进行模拟。考虑到我国建筑的特点，可采用自下而上方法与情景分析方法结合进行区域建筑负荷与能耗预测。
Abstract：
Elaborates the current research status from the aspects of influence factors and prediction methods of the district building load and energy consumption prediction. The influence factors include the factors of monomer building energy consumption and the factors of regional characteristics (urban morphology and micro-climate). The basic prediction methods include the top-down method and the bottom-up method. The bottom-up method is widely used by introducing simultaneous coefficient and combining with scenario analysis method. Due to the lack of mature district building load and energy consumption prediction software, there are two prediction methods at present: 1) the basic modeling methods, i.e. statistical model based on practical investigation and GIS technology; 2) the integrated simulation method combined with energy simulation software and other tools by considering the micro-climate and the influence of urban morphology. Considering the characteristics of buildings in China, the bottom-up method combining with the scenario analysis method can be used to predict the district building load and energy consumption.
Keywords:district energy consumption, load prediction, scenario analysis, urban morphology, micro-climate, district building