Abstract：

To treat the component aging problem in heat supply network, puts forward the method of using maximum entropy principle to study the failure probability distribution of the components, which makes the entropy reach maximum by adjusting the probability density function to obtain the failure probability distribution of components with minimum deviation from sample data on the condition of guaranteeing statistics characteristics of samples remaining unchanged. Develops the practical calculation program and numerically simulates a group of data following exponential distribution and failure statistical data of the components separately. The results show that the function obtained by this method is consistent with the theoretical function and sample statistical result, verifying the validity and practicability of the method and providing basic data for reliability calculation of heat supply network.