气候变化背景下室外计算干球温度统计时长的选取
Determination of record period for outdoor design dry-bulb temperature against climate change background
摘要：
阐述了气候变化背景下用于确定室外计算干球温度的气象数据统计时长的方法。基于确定统计时长的两个基本原则，根据标准差方法和最优气候均态模型，分别确定室外计算干球温度最小统计时长和气象要素最优平均数，通过两者的对比选取室外计算干球温度统计时长。以天津为例进行分析，结果表明，天津地区基于ASHRAE方法的累积发生频率为0.4%，1.0%和2.0%干球温度的统计时长应取15年，累积发生频率为99.0%和99.6%干球温度的统计时长应取10年；基于中国方法的供暖室外计算温度、冬季空调室外计算温度和夏季空调室外计算干球温度的统计时长分别应取13，10和15年。
Abstract：
Describes the determining method, in which based on the two basic principles of determining the record period, the standard deviation method and optimal climate model of uniform status are used to calculate the minimal record period and the optimal average respectively. Compares the two values and determines the record period for the outdoor design dry-bulb temperatures. Taking Tianjin as an example, the record period for dry-bulb temperature is 15 years at cumulative frequency of 0.4%, 1.0% and 2.0% based on ASHRAE method, while 10 years at 99.0% and 99.6%. Based on Chinese method, the record period for the outdoor design temperature for heating, outdoor design temperature for winter air conditioning and outdoor design dry-bulb temperature for summer air conditioning should be 13, 10 and 15 years respectively.
Keywords:climatechange,recordperiod,outdoordesigndry-bulbtemperature,standarddeviationmethod,optimalclimatemodelofuniformstatus