机场航站楼出港旅客抵港概率提取及客流时空分布预测
Departure passenger arrival probability extraction and spatiotemporal distribution prediction in airport terminals
摘要：
研究航站楼客流时空分布特征,并将其实时引入环控系统调控过程,对提高系统调控水平具有重要意义。本研究以广州白云国际机场T2航站楼为例,进行了航站楼空间单元划分,根据航班与安检信息提取了疫时与平时的国内和国际出港旅客抵港概率,发现其符合卡方分布,与航班乘机人数无关;基于欧拉法建立了出港客流时空分布预测模型,与Wi-Fi定位数据对比结果显示,该模型对国内和国际客流密度预测的相关指数R2分别达0.74和0.67以上。
Abstract：
Studying the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of terminal passenger flow and introducing them into the regulation process of the environmental control system in real time is of great significance to improving the level of system regulation. This study takes Terminal T2 of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport as an example. The terminal space units are divided. According to flight and security information, the domestic and international departure passenger arrival probabilities during the epidemic and normal periods are extracted, and it is found that they are well fitted with the chi-square distribution and are independent of the number of passengers on the flight. A spatiotemporal distribution prediction model for departure passenger flow is established based on Euler’s method. Compared with Wi-Fi positioning data, the domestic and international passenger densities are predicted with correlation index R2above 0.74 and 0.67, respectively.
Keywords:terminal; departure passenger arrival probability; chi-square distribution; spatiotemporal distribution of passenger flow; environmental control system; space unit; prediction model