某110 kV变电站建筑能耗模拟与负荷预测分析
Simulation of energy consumption and load prediction analysis of a 110 kV substation building
摘要：
使用EnergyPlus对某典型110 kV变电站能耗进行了模拟,得到模拟数据后对变电站夏季和冬季能耗进行了分析。结果表明:变电站建筑能耗主要包括变电设备能耗、空调系统能耗和风机能耗;除变电设备能耗外,空调系统能耗占比最大。结合模拟数据,使用LSTM模型对变电站进行了负荷预测,结果显示:在使用建筑能耗和气象参数作为多输入的情况下,LSTM负荷预测模型的预测结果更加准确;在超参数设置为time_step=33、rnn_unit=256时预测结果最准确,模型性能最优。
Abstract：
The energy consumption of a typical 110 kV substation is simulated with EnergyPlus, and the energy consumption of the substation in summer and winter is analysed. The results show that the energy consumption of the substation building mainly includes the energy consumption of the substation equipment, air conditioning system and fans. In addition to substation equipment energy consumption, air conditioning system energy consumption accounts for the most. Combined with the simulation data, the LSTM model is used to predict the load of the substation,and the results show that the LSTM load prediction model is more accurate when the building energy consumption and meteorological parameters are used as multiple inputs. The prediction results are most accurate and the model performance is the best when the hyperparameters are set to time_step=33 and rnn_unit=256.
Keywords:substation; building energy consumption simulation; load prediction; LSTM model; EnergyPlus