低碳城市建设工业领域降碳路径确定方法研究
Research on determination method of carbon reduction paths in industrial field of low-carbon city construction
摘要：
在全球气候变化与城市化加速背景下,工业领域作为城市碳排放的核心来源,其结构优化是低碳城市建设的关键路径。本文以亳州市为例,结合低碳城市建设需求,构建了包含产业规模、产业竞争力、技术创新、可持续发展等维度的工业产业发展现状评价体系,并引入低碳潜力关联系数量化产业低碳发展潜力,通过主成分分析法与灰色关联分析法,形成了低碳城市建设工业主导产业综合决策模型。对亳州市24个工业产业进行了实证分析,依据产业发展现状与低碳发展潜力划分四大类型区域,提出了差异化发展策略。结果显示,医药制造业及酒、饮料和精制茶制造业等产业兼具发展基础与低碳潜力,可作为核心主导产业;木材加工业等需通过绿色技术推动低碳转型;金属制品业等需强化技术突破推动产业发展。本研究可为城市工业结构优化与低碳化转型提供科学决策依据。
Abstract：
Against the backdrop of global climate change and accelerating urbanization, the industrial field, as a core source of urban carbon emissions, requires structural optimization as a key path for low-carbon city construction. Taking Bozhou City as a case study, this paper integrates low-carbon city construction requirements to construct an evaluation system for industrial development that includes dimensions such as industrial scale, industrial competitiveness, technological innovation, and sustainability. It further introduces a low-carbon potential correlation coefficient to quantify the low-carbon development potential of industries. Through principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis, a comprehensive decision-making model for leading industries in low-carbon city construction is established. An empirical analysis of 24 industrial sectors in Bozhou City categorizes them into four types based on their development status and low-carbon potential, and proposes differentiated development strategies. The results indicate that the industries like pharmaceutical manufacturing and wine, beverage and refined tea production possess development foundations and low-carbon potential, qualifying as core leading sectors. The industries like wood processing require green technologies to drive low-carbon transformation, while the industries such as metal products need technological breakthroughs to advance industrial development. This study provides scientific decision-making support for optimizing urban industrial structures and promoting low-carbon transformation.
Keywords:low-carbon city; optimization of industrial structure; selection of leading industry; comprehensive decision-making model; low-carbon potential correlation coefficient