陕西省建筑领域碳排放特征与影响因素研究
Characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shaanxi building sector
摘要:
厘清建筑领域碳排放历史特征和影响因素,是建筑行业“双碳”工作部署、碳排放预测及制定减排路线的重要基础。本文以陕西省建筑领域碳排放为研究对象,以建筑建造、建筑运行和建筑拆除为核算边界,以国家、地方及行业统计数据为依据,采用基于能源平衡表拆分法、IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)清单排放因子法等,计算获得了2010—2020年陕西省建筑领域能耗、碳排放分布与变化特征,结果表明:2010—2020年,陕西省建筑领域能耗总量由1 412.27万t增长至1 911.40万t,碳排放总量由4 277.25万t增长至6 004.86万t。采用Kaya恒等式和LMDI分解法进行了碳排放影响因素分析,发现影响建筑领域碳排放的最大因素为人均建筑面积和单位面积能耗强度,最后结合历史数据特征提出了陕西省建筑领域低碳发展建议。
Abstract:
Clarifying the historical characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the building sector is an important basis for the deployment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, carbon emission forecasting and the formulation of emission reduction path in construction industry. This paper studies carbon emissions in the building sector in Shaanxi Province, and the calculation boundaries are building construction, operation, and dismantling, based on national, local and industry statistics. The split method based on building energy balance sheet and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) inventory emission factor method are used to obtain the distribution and change characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the building sector in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020. The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the total energy consumption in the building sector in Shaanxi Province increases from 14.122 7 million tons to 19.114 0 million tons, and the total carbon emission increases from 42.772 5 million tons to 60.048 6 million tons. Moreover, the Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition are used to analyse the influencing factors of carbon emissions, and it is found that the biggest factors affecting carbon emission in the building sector are per capita area and energy consumption intensity per unit area. Finally, the low-carbon development suggestions in the building sector in Shaanxi Province are proposed based on historical data characteristics.
Keywords:building sector; carbon emission; influencing factor; low-carbon development; energy consumption