中国太阳辐射时空变化趋势研究
Temporal and spatial trends of solar radiation in China
摘要：
近年来受雾霾、PM2.5等环境污染影响,地表太阳辐射变化剧烈。分析研究太阳辐射时空变化规律对于太阳能资源利用的部署和规划有着重要意义。本文研究基于85个太阳辐射数据监测台站数据及太阳辐射估算模型,补全了1 994个台站1970—2020年的太阳辐射数据,在此基础上利用创新趋势及M-K突变检测分析了各台站的长期变化趋势及突变情况,得到了中国年、季节总太阳辐射时间变化的空间分布。结果显示:在1970—2020年间,我国的年总太阳辐射整体呈减小趋势,平均变化为-4.26 MJ/(m2·a);西藏西部、甘肃西部及陕西中部呈现增大变化趋势,平均变化约30～105 MJ/(m2·a);在山西、河南、山东的部分地区,减小趋势最快,约为-100～-45 MJ/(m2·a);春季总太阳辐射呈增大趋势,平均变化为0.89 MJ/m2,夏季总太阳辐射减小趋势最明显,平均变化为-2.40 MJ/m2。
Abstract：
In recent years, due to environmental pollution such as smog and PM2.5, surface solar radiation has changed drastically. Analysing and studying the temporal and spatial variation of solar radiation is of great significance for the deployment and planning of solar energy resources. Based on 85 solar radiation data monitoring stations and solar radiation estimation models, this study completes the solar radiation data of 1 994 stations from 1970 to 2020, analyses the long-term change trend and mutation situation of each station by using innovation trend and M-K mutation detection, and obtains the spatial distribution of annual and seasonal total solar radiation temporal changes in China. The results show that from 1970 to 2020, the total annual solar radiation in China shows a downward trend, with an average variation of -4.26 MJ/(m2·a), an upward trend in western Tibet, western Gansu and central Shaanxi, with an average variation of about 30 to 105 MJ/(m2·a ),the fastest downward trend in Shanxi, Henan, and Shandong, about -100 to -45 MJ/(m2·a), an upward trend of 0.89 MJ/m2in spring, and the average decreasing trend of total solar radiation in summer is the most obvious, with an average variation of -2.40 MJ/m2.
Keywords:solar radiation; temporal change; space distribution; innovation trend analysis; M-K mutation detection