负荷不确定性对三联供系统配置和经济性的影响
Effect of uncertainty of energy demand on optimal facility scheme and economical efficiency of combined cooling heating and power systems
摘要：
利用围绕代表日负荷的概率分布来描述所有负荷的不确定性，以年总费用期望值为目标函数，建立了三联供系统的优化模型。根据一实例，系统地研究了负荷不确定性对三联供系统配置和经济性的影响。结果表明，负荷不确定性对三联供系统核心设备的配置影响不大，对辅助设备影响较大；随不确定性的增大，三联供系统初投资和运行费用都有所增加，系统经济优势有所下降。
Abstract：
Uses probability distribution based on representative energy demands to describe the uncertain demands. Establishes an optimization model for the combined cooling heating and power（CCHP）system with expected value of annual cost as objective function. With a hotel example, studies the influence of uncertain demands on facility scheme and economical efficiency of CCHP system. The result shows that the uncertainty of demands affect the core facilities slightly while affect the assistant facilities largely, and with increase of uncertainty of energy demands, the initial investment and operation cost increase and the economic advantages of CCHP system compared with conventional system decrease to some extent.
Keywords:uncertaintyofenergydemand,combinedcoolingheatingandpower,optimalfacilityscheme,economicalefficiency