Abstract：

In the context of dual carbon goals and climate change, energy transition is imperative. Building cooling load zoning can intuitively show the building cooling energy demand,reveal the growth differences in cooling demand in different regions in China and provide guidance for building structural energy transformation. The rationality of zoning mainly depends on the zoning index, so a zoning method using the cooling degree hours (CDH) index is proposed. First, based on outdoor meteorological parameters and indoor thermal comfort temperature, the CDHs of China’s historical stage Ⅰ (1988-2017) and climate change scenario stage Ⅱ (2050-2080) are generated. Then, the K-medoids algorithm is used to divide China into five building cooling load zones under the two-stage scenario, reflecting the regional differences in cooling energy demand. The variation characteristics of the two-stage building cooling load zoning are compared and analysed. It is found that the cooling energy consumption in some cold regions of China increases most obviously under climate change, and the future transformation of building energy structure has a strong demand potential for renewable energy such as solar energy.