碳中和城市建筑能源系统（3）：负荷篇
Building energy system of carbon neutrality cities（3）: Load
摘要：
本文是碳中和城市建筑能源系统系列文章的第三篇。碳中和城市能源系统要实现“两个替代”，即能源生产的可再生能源替代和能源消费的电力替代。因此有2个关键点对负荷分析提出了要求：一是建筑电气化，使得建筑供热供冷负荷与电力负荷更紧密地结合在一起。二是可再生能源利用的规模化，使得电力系统从原先只应对需求侧的变动负荷，变为要应对需求侧和供应侧2个方面的变动负荷；而建筑成为电网灵活性的最主要的提供者。本文总结了在这种形势下的电力负荷和冷热负荷分析的特点，阐述了电力负荷分析与建筑供热供冷负荷分析技术路径的异同。重点介绍了在建筑能耗限额背景下供热供冷负荷的反推方法，以及其重要参数“当量满负荷小时数”的概念和生成方法。最后介绍了为电网提供灵活性的供热供冷负荷预测的技术路径。
Abstract：
This article is the third in a series of articles on the building energy system of carbon neutrality cities. The carbon neutralized urban energy system should realize the “two alternatives”, that is, the renewable energy replacement in energy production and the electric substitution in energy consumption. Therefore, there are two key points on load analysis requirements. First, the electrification of the building makes the building heating and cooling load closely combined with the electrical load. Second, the large-scale application of renewable energy causes that the power system changes its focus from originally variable load is only in the demand side to be both in the demand side and the supply side, and the buildings become the most important providers of grid flexibility. The article summarizes the characteristics of electricity load and heating/cooling load analysis under this situation, and explains the similarities and differences in the technical paths of power load analysis and building heating/cooling load analysis. The article focuses on the heating/cooling load backcasting method under the background of the building energy consumption quota, as well as the concept and generating method of “equivalent full load hours”. Finally, the technical pathway of heating/cooling load forecasting for providing flexibility to the power grid is presented.
Keywords:carbonneutrality;electricalload;heating/coolingload;flexibility;loadbackcasting;energyquota;equivalentfullloadhour(EFLH);demandsideresponse