基于双回归预测模型的公共建筑运行阶段碳排放现状研究
Carbon emission status of public buildings in operation stage based on double regression prediction model
摘要：
结合上海市统计年鉴中的面积数据和黄浦区公共建筑能源审计报告的能耗信息，建立了建筑碳排放的双回归预测模型。并根据建筑能耗影响因素，将不同空调系统形式、节能改造程度参数化后引入预测模型，量化了此类抽象因素对建筑碳排放的影响程度，有效提高了预测模型的精度，且适用于不同场景下建筑碳排放的研究。利用该模型预测了2012—2025年黄浦区公共建筑碳排放情况。
Abstract：
Based on the area data in the Shanghai statistical yearbook and the energy consumption information in the energy audit report of public buildings in Huangpu District, constructs a double regression prediction model of building carbon emission. According to the influencing factors of building energy consumption, parameterizes different air conditioning system forms and energy saving transformation degrees and adds them into the prediction model, which quantifies the influence of these abstract factors on building carbon emission, effectively improves the accuracy of the prediction model and is suitable for the research of building carbon emission in different scenarios. Uses the model to predict the carbon emissions of public buildings in Huangpu District from 2012 to 2025.
Keywords:publicbuilding,carbonemission,doubleregressionpredictionmodel,buildingenergyconsumption,influencingfactor,area