基于不确定性量化分析的超低能耗建筑空调系统运行能耗研究
Energy consumption of air conditioning systems in ultra-low energy buildings based on uncertainty quantitative analysis
摘要：
由于实际建筑运行条件复杂多变，单一工况点下的建筑空调系统运行能耗模拟计算结果往往与实测数据偏差较大。为准确评估上海一栋超低能耗建筑空调系统的运行能耗，应用不确定性量化分析方法对其进行了分析研究，使用累积概率对建筑空调系统运行能耗进行了概率估计。对影响空调系统运行能耗的参数进行了不确定性辨析，确定了参数概率分布及取值范围；在此基础上，使用DesignBuilder对空调系统运行能耗进行了不确定性量化分析。经计算可知，在95%的概率下，该建筑空调系统全年单位面积运行能耗约为25 kW·h/（m2·a）。
Abstract：
Due to the complicated operating conditions of actual buildings, the simulation results of energy consumption of building air conditioning systems under a single working condition often deviate greatly from the measured data. In order to accurately assess the air conditioning system energy consumption of an ultra-low energy building in Shanghai, takes the cumulative probability to estimate the energy consumption of air conditioning system based on the uncertainty quantitative analysis. Analyses the uncertainty of parameters affecting the energy consumption of air conditioning system and determines the probability distribution and value range. On this basis, analyses the uncertainty distribution of energy consumption using the DesignBuilder software. According to the analysis, the annual energy consumption per unit area of the building air conditioning system is about 25 kWh/(m2·a) with a probability of 95%.
Keywords:uncertainty quantitative analysis, ultra-low energy building, air conditioning system, sensitivity analysis, cumulative probability