我国城市建筑碳达峰与碳中和路径探讨
Discussion on paths of carbon peak and carbonneutrality of urban buildings in China
摘要：
对我国城市民用建筑的隐含碳排放和运行碳排放作了测算。指出了影响我国城市建筑碳达峰的主要因素：一是建设规模和建筑寿命，二是北方城市集中供暖的高碳和高能耗。如果按既有发展模式（BAU），我国城市建筑在2030年很难碳达峰。而在控制建设规模、供暖系统电气化和提升效率、实现建筑能耗限额设计等措施基础上，我国城市建筑在2030年将可实现碳达峰21亿t，这一峰值比BAU减少近50%。提出了城市建筑碳中和的5项基本措施，即：超低能耗建筑，降低碳负荷；建筑电气化和提高能效；现场可再生能源利用；为高渗透率可变可再生能源提供弹性；空气中碳捕集和碳利用。强调了城市开发建设的方式必须从粗放型外延式发展转向集约型内涵式发展，从增量建设逐步转向存量提质改造。
Abstract：
Calculates the hidden carbon emissions and operating carbon emissions of urban civil buildings in China. Points out that the main factors that affect the carbon peak of urban buildings in China are the scale and life of the buildings and the high carbon and high energy consumption of central heating in northern cities. If we follow the existing development mode (BAU), it is difficult for Chinese urban buildings to peak carbon emissions in 2030. Based on the measures of controlling the construction scale, heating system electrification and improving efficiency, and realizing the design of building energy consumption limit, the carbon peak of urban buildings in China will reach 2.1 billion tons by 2030, which is nearly 50% lower than that of BAU. Proposes five basic measures for carbon neutrality of urban buildings, namely, building ultra-low energy buildings for reducing carbon load, building electrification and improving energy efficiency, on-site renewable energy utilization, providing flexibility for high permeability variable renewable energy, and carbon capture and carbon utilization in air. Emphasizes that the way of urban development and construction must be from extensive extension to intensive connotation, and from incremental construction to stock quality improvement.
Keywords:urban building, carbon neutrality, carbon peak, electrification of central heating, usage of renewable energy, integrated energy system, energy bus, direct air carbon capture