Energy consumption of air conditioning systems in ultra-low energy buildings based on uncertainty quantitative analysis

Zhao Deyin and Xu Qiang

2021.05.20

Due to the complicated operating conditions of actual buildings, the simulation results of energy consumption of building air conditioning systems under a single working condition often deviate greatly from the measured data. In order to accurately assess the air conditioning system energy consumption of an ultra-low energy building in Shanghai, takes the cumulative probability to estimate the energy consumption of air conditioning system based on the uncertainty quantitative analysis. Analyses the uncertainty of parameters affecting the energy consumption of air conditioning system and determines the probability distribution and value range. On this basis, analyses the uncertainty distribution of energy consumption using the DesignBuilder software. According to the analysis, the annual energy consumption per unit area of the building air conditioning system is about 25 kWh/(m2·a) with a probability of 95%.